Bagher Babanejad; Mohsen Taheri Demneh; Samereh Shojaei; Mohammad Bagher Gorji
Abstract
One of the major challenges facing organizations is the expansion of factors affecting the designing a favorable outlook.Exploring environment trends to understand the future trend requires an approach beyond the usual methods of forecasting and planning.Foresight allows us to have narratives and believable ...
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One of the major challenges facing organizations is the expansion of factors affecting the designing a favorable outlook.Exploring environment trends to understand the future trend requires an approach beyond the usual methods of forecasting and planning.Foresight allows us to have narratives and believable images of emerging outlook from the insights gained.The purpose study is to present a picture of the future of the customs in the form of possible and compatible scenarios. In this mixed research, in order to achieve goals, data collection was done through the study of Mega-trends using scanning method and based on PESTEL analysis.The initial list was variables to find the most effective factors on the customs organization through telephone and email surveys of experts, which led to the design of a 30-factor questionnaire.By effectiveness of the matrix in an expert panel, data analysis in Micmac software led to the identification of four driving forces.The driving forces in 9 mode in CAI questionnaire a Spectrum of favorable to unfavorable conditions and according to the degree of importance and probability of occurrence, were surveyed by experts and analyzed with Scenario Wizard software.Findings show that the two scenarios of the current situation and Adaptive change will be the most likely future scenarios of customs.Familiarity with the narrative of each scenario and comparing their desirability can be the basis for designing future measures so that Iranian Customs can be a flexible, transparent and accountable organization in order to protect society, the health of goods and the satisfaction of stakeholders.
General Management
Mohsen Taheri Demneh; sheyda Tayefe Hashemi; Zahra Heidari Darani
Abstract
This research was conducted as an applied research with the aim of corporate foresight in Isfahan Gas Company. In this research, a set of foresight methods including six pillars of future, trend analysis, expert panel, environmental scanning, and scenario writing have been used. Participants in this ...
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This research was conducted as an applied research with the aim of corporate foresight in Isfahan Gas Company. In this research, a set of foresight methods including six pillars of future, trend analysis, expert panel, environmental scanning, and scenario writing have been used. Participants in this study were 15 senior managers of Isfahan Gas Company who participated in more than twenty expert panels. The results showed that four major drivers, that is, 1- Relationship of the country with the global village, 2- Internal political tensions and resulted insecurity, 3- Gas company privatization, 4- Gas export, will affect the future of the Gas Company work environment. Based on the different combinations of these four drivers in the scenario planning software (scenario wizard) and the use of a scenario-based approach focusing on critical uncertainties, the story of three scenarios of 1. double effort in green state, 2. one to shore, one to nail in yellow state, 3. trying to survive in the red state, has been prepared. Finally, according to the provided scenario, suggestions for implementation were presented.
